Debate Club · № 1
Three debaters, one judge — all argued from his real commute numbers, not vibes. The question: buy a used 2022 Model 3, lease a new one, or wait.
Buy the used 2022 Model 3. $778/mo all-in vs $1,157/mo to lease — a $13,644 gap over three years the lease never justifies, on a mileage allowance Luke already exceeds.
Ground rules: hybrid ~2 office days/week (18,200 mi/yr; 33,000 at 5 days). Dumbarton toll $8.50 each morning. No HOV access — the CA decal program ended Sept 2025. Office L3 chargers are the gas station. CA MyFirstEV rebate: Tesla allocation sold out Aug 2026.
Argued by the Buy advocate
Luke's goal is the cheapest Tesla with FSD. His own calculator gives us the answer: a used 2022 Model 3 at $778 a month all-in, versus $1,157 for the new lease. That's $379 a month — or $13,644 over three years — to keep in his pocket. The lease needs a very good argument to justify that premium. A newer cabin isn't it.
Buy the 2022 for roughly $20,000 cash, sell it for an estimated $12,000 three years later, and depreciation costs $8,000. The first owner already absorbed the initial hit. Luke gets the benefit.
The LFP battery fits his charging setup: its 60 kWh pack can charge to 100% guilt-free, and his office chargers become his gas station twice a week. The 2022's eight-year/120,000-mile battery and drive-unit warranty remains active — buy the right example, not simply the cheapest listing: battery health report, accident history, pre-purchase inspection.
And the lease's biggest problem: Luke already expects about 18,200 miles annually, above its 15,000-mile allowance. If Robinhood pushes him to five office days, that becomes roughly 33,000 miles a year. Ownership has no contractual mileage cap.
"Buy the used Model 3: it delivers the lowest calculated cost today without putting a mileage penalty on whatever his employer demands tomorrow."
Argued by the Lease advocate
Luke wants the cheapest Tesla with FSD. The used 2022 wins on price. But buying the cheapest car becomes a questionable bargain when its oldest major component is the computer running the feature he wants most.
The 2026 gives him HW4/AI4 — the current FSD computer. The 2022 gives him HW3, whose long-term FSD future is uncertain. With roughly three hours in the car every office day, that deserves real weight.
The lease costs $479/month at the 15,000-mile tier, with $4,114 due at signing — approximately $1,157 monthly all-in versus $778 used. This is a premium purchase; pretending otherwise would insult his calculator. What it buys: a brand-new car with no inherited battery degradation, full bumper-to-bumper warranty, fixed payments, and a scheduled exit with no $12,000 resale gamble.
Honestly: 15,000 miles does not cover his estimated 18,200. And if Robinhood requires five office days, my case collapses — brutal overage penalties make this lease the wrong tool.
"When FSD is non-negotiable, lease the current computer instead of staking your top priority on the uncertain future of the old one."
Argued by the Wait advocate
The cheapest move today is keeping the working car you already own. The used 2022 wins the Tesla comparison at $778 a month — about $28,000 over three years — but winning that comparison doesn't make it cheap, not for a car with no commuting assignment five days a week.
Then there's hardware: the 2022 gets you HW3, whose long-term FSD future is uncertain. New gets you HW4, but you pay new-car money while risking another hardware cycle changing the equation. At the $99 monthly subscription, you can subscribe later to whatever capability exists then.
Most importantly, his schedule could change the entire decision. Two office days means ~18,200 annual miles; five means ~33,000 — and brutal lease overages. Another year gives better evidence about his schedule, charging routine, and hardware choices. These 2022s are already near the floor, so further price declines are a bonus, not the thesis.
"Keep the working car until you know whether you're buying for an 18,200-mile life or a 33,000-mile one."
"That's changing Luke's life to fit your financing."— A, on B's "with personal mileage controlled" (cutting 5,000 personal miles to ~1,800, a 64% reduction)
"Even if the estimated $12,000 resale becomes $8,000, used still leads by roughly $9,600."— A, defusing B's resale-gamble attack
Why it mattered: B's own numbers showed the lease failing its mileage test on day one — at Luke's current schedule, not some hypothetical.
"Saving $13,644 matters — but buying older hardware for the single feature he cares about most risks being penny-wise if that hardware stops meeting his expectations."— B
"A doesn't get to retain a $12,000 resale assumption unchanged after roughly 44,400 additional miles, either."— B, on the 5-day-week scenario
Why it mattered: the judge named HW3's uncertain FSD future the single strongest threat to its own verdict — this exchange is why.
"He is signing up already projected to exceed the allowance. Your 'predictable costs' require changing his life to fit the quote."— C
Why it mattered: it turned B's best word — "predictable" — into the lease's indictment.
"312–468 more hours in traffic without the FSD Luke wants. That is the concrete price of your 'optionality.'"— B
"Your 'cheapest Tesla with FSD' could become the cheapest Tesla with stale FSD in two years."— C, on A's HW3 gamble
Why it mattered: both sides forced C to price its patience — and C's HW3 counter landed as the debate's most uncomfortable truth.
A: buy the used 2022 Model 3 wins for Luke today, provided a clean example's available FSD satisfies him. His stated goal is the cheapest Tesla with FSD, and his calculator puts used ownership at $778/month against $1,157/month for leasing. HW4 and broader warranty coverage have value, but B hasn't justified the premium — especially with a mileage allowance Luke already exceeds. C preserves cash but postpones his non-negotiable feature without establishing the actual savings. Buy used after checking condition, remaining warranty mileage, and the FSD experience on that specific car.
| Choice | Monthly | 3-yr all-in |
|---|---|---|
| A · Buy used 2022 | $778 | $28,008 |
| B · Lease new 2026 | $1,157 | $41,652 |
| C · Keep current car (illustrative) | ~$400* | ~$14,400* |
HW3 could fail Luke's actual requirement even while winning his spreadsheet. He wants FSD for roughly six hours of weekly commuting — an inexpensive car with assistance he finds inadequate is a poor purchase. If a representative drive exposes unacceptable limitations, or credible evidence shows a capability he requires will stay unavailable on HW3, the verdict weakens substantially. Inspection and battery coverage cannot solve that problem.